Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino
Leader sits at 51% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Montevideo City Torque
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Draw (Montevideo City Torque
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$16
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino: Montevideo City Torque
0x6bb536…3a3e
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino: Draw (Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino)
0x71ac64…12d5
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino: CD Palestino
0x3299d6…ce11
Analysis
This represents a 48% probability that Montevideo City Torque will win their upcoming match against CD Palestino. The prediction reflects moderate confidence favoring Montevideo City, though the runner-up outcome sits at 27%, indicating meaningful uncertainty. The probability is primarily driven by each team's recent form, head-to-head record, and current league position. Resolving this outcome depends on the scheduled match result between these two clubs. Market depth appears limited, with low trading volume ($0 across recent periods) suggesting few active traders are monitoring this specific fixture, which could mean the probability is less refined than heavily-traded matches. Key factors include each team's recent performance trajectory, home-field advantage if applicable, injury status of key players, and any tactical adjustments either squad has implemented. The relatively modest 48% probability—neither overwhelming favorite nor true underdog—suggests the match is competitive on paper, though one team may hold a slight edge based on current market assessment.
- ›Montevideo City is favored at 48% versus the runner-up at 27%, indicating the market perceives a meaningful but not decisive advantage
- ›Trading volume is near zero across recent periods, suggesting low liquidity and potentially less-refined probability estimates compared to heavily-traded sports markets
- ›The match outcome will be determined by the scheduled fixture result; no interim data releases or ongoing events contribute to probability changes before resolution
- ›Historical head-to-head records, current league standings, and recent form of both clubs are the primary drivers of the 48% probability
- ›Injuries, suspensions, or late tactical changes to either team's roster could shift the probability if market participants become aware before kickoff
What moved the line
- May 7Montevideo City Torque↑43pp57→100¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Draw (Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino)↓28pp28→0¢ · Polymarket
- May 6CD Palestino↓11pp26→15¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.