Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: CD Palestino (-1.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
7%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: CD Palestino
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: CD Palestino (-1.5)
0x3516b5…3b92
Analysis
This market prices CD Palestino's chances of winning by 2+ goals or more against Montevideo City Torque at 11%, meaning traders assign roughly an 89% probability to other outcomes (Torque win, draw, or narrower Palestino victory). The low probability reflects either Torque's perceived strength at home, Palestino's recent form, or historical head-to-head patterns favoring tighter scorelines. The main drivers would be team injury reports, recent goal-scoring efficiency, and defensive records in similar matchups. Resolution depends on the scheduled match result; if Palestino fails to secure a 2+ goal margin, the market resolves to the competing outcome. Current contract volume is minimal, suggesting limited trader conviction or liquidity in this specific spread.
- ›CD Palestino's recent goal differential and attack efficiency in away matches
- ›Montevideo City Torque's defensive record and home performance over the last 5–10 matches
- ›Team roster absences (injuries, suspensions) announced before kickoff
- ›Historical head-to-head results and margin patterns between these teams
- ›Scheduled match date and live odds movements closer to game time
What moved the line
- May 6CD Palestino (-1.5)↓13pp20→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 7CD Palestino (-1.5)↓7pp7→0¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (7% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.