Morocco vs. Haiti
Leader sits at 64% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Morocco
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Draw (Morocco vs. Haiti)
Spread
36pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 24, 2026
46 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Morocco vs. Haiti
Analysis
Morocco is currently priced at 70% to defeat Haiti in this match outcome, indicating strong market confidence in a Moroccan victory. This high probability reflects Morocco's historical ranking advantage and expected squad depth compared to Haiti. The price could shift based on team news—injuries to key Morocco players would lower the probability, while Haiti roster surprises or tactical insights could raise Haiti's chances. The match itself and its result will resolve this contract, making actual team lineups, recent form updates, and pre-match tactical reports the primary uncertainty reducers before kickoff. Notably, related Brazil-Morocco contracts show lower volumes, suggesting less market certainty in parallel matchups.
- ›Morocco's FIFA ranking and historical performance metrics versus Haiti's competitive level in recent matches
- ›Betting volume on this specific contract ($6 24h vol) is substantially lower than related Brazil-Morocco contracts ($58-$45 24h vol), indicating less market participation and potentially wider bid-ask spreads
- ›Runner-up outcome (likely Haiti) is priced at 27%, creating a 43-point gap that assumes Morocco's superiority is well-established in market consensus
- ›Pre-match roster availability and injury reports for Morocco's starting XI could materially shift probability if key players are unavailable
- ›Recent head-to-head results or qualifying performance data between these teams would be necessary to validate whether the 70% price reflects actual historical win rates
What moved the line
- May 3Morocco↑12pp57→69¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Draw (Morocco vs. Haiti)↓4pp33→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Morocco↓3pp70→67¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Haiti↓3pp30→27¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.