Multipli.fi FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 84% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 61%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$20M
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
61¢
$50M
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$30
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Multipli.fi FDV above ___ one day after launch
Multipli.fi FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $20M
0xabff4f…19c2
Multipli.fi FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M
0xfb3e9a…df67
Multipli.fi FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0x758ea5…6640
Multipli.fi FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0x3fc4f9…134e
Multipli.fi FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B
0x6f99b3…709b
Multipli.fi FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0x54a93c…69b5
Multipli.fi FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0x929f88…6337
Multipli.fi FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M
0x362592…7f03
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Multipli.fi will achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of at least $50 million within one day of its launch. The 84% probability suggests traders view a $50M valuation as highly likely for this project. Market pricing indicates substantial confidence in near-term valuations, though the multi-outcome structure shows meaningful disagreement on higher valuation thresholds—with $500M and $800M valuations trading at 44¢ and 17¢ respectively. The primary factors shaping this probability are the project's token supply mechanics and the overall market appetite for similar launches at the time of release. Resolution will depend entirely on observable market prices and trading volume immediately following the launch event, making this a straightforward factual outcome.
- ›Initial token supply and distribution structure determine the FDV calculation method and baseline valuation floor
- ›Market conditions and broader cryptocurrency sentiment at launch date will influence initial pricing and trading interest
- ›Competition from similar launches or major market events occurring on or near the launch date could divert capital flows
- ›Historical precedent for comparable project launches shows considerable variance in day-one valuations
- ›Pre-launch marketing, partnerships, or institutional interest announcements could materially shift expectations before resolution
What moved the line
- May 7$800M↓22pp42→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$20M↑21pp62→83¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$20M↑21pp64→85¢ · Polymarket
- May 3$20M↓19pp83→64¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$100M↓14pp55→41¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.