Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC
Leader sits at 42% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Nagoya Grampus
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
Kyōto Sanga FC
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$36
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC
Analysis
This represents the market's estimated probability that Nagoya Grampus will win their upcoming match against Kyōto Sanga FC. The three outcomes—Nagoya victory, draw, and Kyōto victory—are nearly balanced, with Nagoya slightly favored at 37% compared to Kyōto's 33% and a draw at 31%. This close clustering suggests limited differentiation between the teams' recent form or betting activity. The market would shift based on lineup changes, injury reports, or head-to-head historical performance. The match itself will resolve the question once played, making the scheduled game date the primary catalyst for price movement in the final trading window before kickoff.
- ›Current odds show Nagoya as narrow favorites (37%) over Kyōto (33%) with draw probability at 31%, indicating the market perceives marginal tactical or capability advantages
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all three contracts suggests limited recent market interest or conviction, potentially indicating stale pricing
- ›J.League standing positions, recent form records, and injury status of key players in both squads would typically drive directional movements in similar matchups
- ›Draw outcome priced at 31% reflects non-trivial probability of a tie, common in competitive league matches with defensive parity
- ›Match scheduling and any late team news (roster changes, coaching decisions) before kickoff typically catalyze final probability adjustments in sports prediction markets
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.