SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 4 min agoCloses May 10, 2026 · 1d

Nashville SC vs. D.C. United SC

Leader sits at 59% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

59%

Nashville SC

runner-up 25¢leader 59¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

25¢

Draw (Nashville SC vs. D.C.

Spread

34pp

contested

24h volume

$1K

modest

Closes

May 10, 2026

1 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayNashville SC: 63% (3 days, 2 points)Nashville SC: 63% on 2026-05-07Draw (Nashville SC vs. D.C. United SC): 23% on 2026-05-08D.C. United SC: 15% on 2026-05-07
Nashville SC63¢Draw (Nashville SC vs. D.C. United SC)23¢D.C. United SC15¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market prices Nashville SC as a 62% favorite over D.C. United in an upcoming match. The probability reflects current form, team strength, and venue considerations based on available betting data. Key factors affecting this price include each team's recent performance, injury status, and whether the match is home or away for Nashville. The result will be determined when the teams play, which is the single concrete event that resolves this market. Movement in this probability before that date would indicate either new information about team condition or shifts in market sentiment as the match approaches.

  • Nashville SC's recent win-loss record and goal differential relative to D.C. United's current standing in the MLS table
  • Home field advantage if Nashville is hosting, or D.C. United's defensive record in away matches if playing on the road
  • Confirmed player availability and injury reports for key starters on both sides within 48 hours of kickoff
  • Head-to-head historical results and performance patterns in recent meetings between the two clubs
  • Current form streak—consecutive wins/losses or consistency in scoring for either team in the past 5-10 matches

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.