SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 8, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketclosed 8 h agoCloses May 7, 2026 · 0d

National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC

Leader sits at 52% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

52%

National Bank of Egypt Club

runner-up 30¢leader 52¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

30¢

Draw (National Bank of Egypt

Spread

22pp

contested

24h volume

$703

thin orderbook

Closes

May 7, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayNational Bank of Egypt Club: 57% (4 days, 4 points)National Bank of Egypt Club: 57% on 2026-05-07Draw (National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC): 34% (4 days, 4 points)Draw (National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC): 34% on 2026-05-07Ismaily SC: 8% (4 days, 4 points)Ismaily SC: 8% on 2026-05-07
National Bank of Egypt Club57¢Draw (National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC)34¢Ismaily SC8¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 4d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market reflects traders' assessment that National Bank of Egypt Club has a 43% chance of winning their match against Ismaily SC, with competitor Ismaily SC priced at 35% and a draw scenario at the remainder. The probability sits notably below even odds, suggesting market participants view Ismaily SC as slightly favored or see meaningful uncertainty in the outcome. The current level likely reflects recent team form, head-to-head history, and any available squad information. The match result will resolve this market once the final whistle concludes play. Movement in this probability would follow any roster changes, injury announcements, or public performance data released before kickoff. The specific match date and venue conditions will function as the primary catalyst for settling the contract.

  • Recent league standings and win-loss records for both teams in their current season
  • Head-to-head historical performance in prior matchups between National Bank of Egypt Club and Ismaily SC
  • Announced injuries, suspensions, or roster changes affecting either team's available players
  • Trading volume distribution across the three outcome contracts, indicating where larger position holders have placed confidence
  • Match venue location and any environmental factors (pitch condition, travel fatigue, crowd composition) that typically affect Egyptian Premier League outcomes

What moved the line

  • May 6Ismaily SC13pp3421¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Ismaily SC13pp218¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7National Bank of Egypt Club10pp4757¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6National Bank of Egypt Club5pp4247¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 8 h ago.