Nikola Jokić
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$351
14 contracts
Closes
May 23, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Deandre Ayton: Double Double: Deandre Ayton” vs “Jalen Duren: Double Double: Jalen Duren”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Deandre Ayton: Double Double: Deandre Ayton
Deandre Ayton: Double Double: Deandre Ayton
KXNBA2D-26MAY09OKCLAL-LALDAYTON5
Cluster 2
Jalen Duren: Double Double: Jalen Duren
Jalen Duren: Double Double: Jalen Duren
KXNBA2D-26MAY09DETCLE-DETJDUREN0
Cluster 3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Double Double: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Double Double: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
KXNBA2D-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKCSGILGEOUSALEXANDER2
Cluster 4
Chet Holmgren: Double Double: Chet Holmgren
Chet Holmgren: Double Double: Chet Holmgren
KXNBA2D-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKCCHOLMGREN7
Cluster 5
Evan Mobley: Double Double: Evan Mobley
Evan Mobley: Double Double: Evan Mobley
KXNBA2D-26MAY09DETCLE-CLEEMOBLEY4
Cluster 6
Ausar Thompson: Double Double: Ausar Thompson
Ausar Thompson: Double Double: Ausar Thompson
KXNBA2D-26MAY09DETCLE-DETATHOMPSON9
Cluster 7
Jarrett Allen: Double Double: Jarrett Allen
Jarrett Allen: Double Double: Jarrett Allen
KXNBA2D-26MAY09DETCLE-CLEJALLEN31
Cluster 8
Austin Reaves: Double Double: Austin Reaves
Austin Reaves: Double Double: Austin Reaves
KXNBA2D-26MAY09OKCLAL-LALAREAVES15
Cluster 9
LeBron James: Double Double: LeBron James
LeBron James: Double Double: LeBron James
KXNBA2D-26MAY09OKCLAL-LALLJAMES23
Cluster 10
Luguentz Dort: Double Double: Luguentz Dort
Luguentz Dort: Double Double: Luguentz Dort
KXNBA2D-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKCLDORT5
Cluster 11
Isaiah Hartenstein: Double Double: Isaiah Hartenstein
Isaiah Hartenstein: Double Double: Isaiah Hartenstein
KXNBA2D-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKCIHARTENSTEIN55
Cluster 12
James Harden: Double Double: James Harden
James Harden: Double Double: James Harden
KXNBA2D-26MAY09DETCLE-CLEJHARDEN1
Cluster 13
Cade Cunningham: Double Double: Cade Cunningham
Cade Cunningham: Double Double: Cade Cunningham
KXNBA2D-26MAY09DETCLE-DETCCUNNINGHAM2
Cluster 14
Tobias Harris: Double Double: Tobias Harris
Tobias Harris: Double Double: Tobias Harris
KXNBA2D-26MAY09DETCLE-DETTHARRIS12
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.