SimpleFunctions
20 contractsKalshirefreshed 1 min agoCloses May 23, 2026 · 14d

Julius Randle: 4+ assists

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 51% across 20 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

51%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

51%

20 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$2K

20 contracts

Closes

May 23, 2026

14 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 40% on 2026-05-08
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 1d

Bracket families

9 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “LeBron James” vs “Austin Reaves”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

LeBron James

4 contracts$953

Cluster 2

Austin Reaves

4 contracts$287

Cluster 3

Marcus Smart

3 contracts$875

Cluster 4

Jalen Duren

3 contracts$25

Cluster 5

Donovan Mitchell

2 contracts$126

Cluster 6

Tobias Harris: 2+ assists: Tobias Harris: 2+

1 contract$85

Cluster 7

James Harden: 8+ assists: James Harden: 8+

1 contract$54

Cluster 8

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 6+ assists: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 6+

1 contract$7

Cluster 9

Ausar Thompson: 6+ assists: Ausar Thompson: 6+

1 contract$0

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.