Julius Randle: 4+ assists
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 51% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
51%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
20 contracts
Closes
May 23, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “LeBron James” vs “Austin Reaves”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
LeBron James
LeBron James: 4+ assists: LeBron James: 4+
KXNBAAST-26MAY09OKCLAL-LALLJAMES23-4
LeBron James: 6+ assists: LeBron James: 6+
KXNBAAST-26MAY09OKCLAL-LALLJAMES23-6
LeBron James: 10+ assists: LeBron James: 10+
KXNBAAST-26MAY09OKCLAL-LALLJAMES23-10
LeBron James: 12+ assists: LeBron James: 12+
KXNBAAST-26MAY09OKCLAL-LALLJAMES23-12
Cluster 2
Austin Reaves
Austin Reaves: 6+ assists: Austin Reaves: 6+
KXNBAAST-26MAY09OKCLAL-LALAREAVES15-6
Austin Reaves: 2+ assists: Austin Reaves: 2+
KXNBAAST-26MAY09OKCLAL-LALAREAVES15-2
Austin Reaves: 4+ assists: Austin Reaves: 4+
KXNBAAST-26MAY09OKCLAL-LALAREAVES15-4
Austin Reaves: 5+ assists: Austin Reaves: 5+
KXNBAAST-26MAY09OKCLAL-LALAREAVES15-5
Cluster 3
Marcus Smart
Cluster 4
Jalen Duren
Cluster 5
Donovan Mitchell
Cluster 6
Tobias Harris: 2+ assists: Tobias Harris: 2+
Tobias Harris: 2+ assists: Tobias Harris: 2+
KXNBAAST-26MAY09DETCLE-DETTHARRIS12-2
Cluster 7
James Harden: 8+ assists: James Harden: 8+
James Harden: 8+ assists: James Harden: 8+
KXNBAAST-26MAY09DETCLE-CLEJHARDEN1-8
Cluster 8
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 6+ assists: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 6+
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 6+ assists: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 6+
KXNBAAST-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKCSGILGEOUSALEXANDER2-6
Cluster 9
Ausar Thompson: 6+ assists: Ausar Thompson: 6+
Ausar Thompson: 6+ assists: Ausar Thompson: 6+
KXNBAAST-26MAY09DETCLE-DETATHOMPSON9-6
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.