Who will win Eastern Conference Finals MVP
Leader sits at 28% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Cade Cunningham
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Jalen Brunson
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Apr 12, 2027
338 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win Eastern Conference Finals MVP
Who will win Eastern Conference Finals MVP?: Cade Cunningham
KXNBAEFINMVP-26-CCUN
Who will win Eastern Conference Finals MVP?: Jalen Brunson
KXNBAEFINMVP-26-JBRU
Who will win Eastern Conference Finals MVP?: OG Anunoby
KXNBAEFINMVP-26-OANU
Who will win Eastern Conference Finals MVP?: Karl-Anthony Towns
KXNBAEFINMVP-26-KTOW
Who will win Eastern Conference Finals MVP?: Donovan Mitchell
KXNBAEFINMVP-26-DMIT
Who will win Eastern Conference Finals MVP?: Jalen Duren
KXNBAEFINMVP-26-JDUR
Analysis
The 24% probability indicates traders believe Philadelphia has roughly a one-in-four chance of winning the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP award. This price reflects Philadelphia's implied path to the conference championship combined with individual player performance uncertainty. Trading volume is concentrated on conference championship outcomes rather than MVP attribution, suggesting uncertainty around both team advancement and individual award voting. The probability could shift based on playoff seeding changes, injury developments, or shifts in team performance as the postseason approaches. The Eastern Conference Finals themselves will provide the ultimate resolution point—trading on MVP outcomes depends entirely on which team reaches that stage and how individual players perform during the series.
- ›Philadelphia's implied conference championship win probability (~13% from Kalshi data) serves as a ceiling for their MVP chances, constraining how high this probability can move
- ›New York's higher championship probability (41%) and Detroit/Cleveland at 20% each suggest market-implied talent distribution, affecting which teams are favored to produce a Finals MVP
- ›The 24% reading for the leading contract substantially exceeds any single runner-up at 17%, indicating concentration on one player rather than dispersed voting risk
- ›24-hour volume of $862,365 on Philadelphia's championship contract dwarfs the $25,760 on the NBA Finals outcome, revealing limited direct MVP trading relative to championship betting
- ›Playoff injuries, role changes, or trading deadline moves before the conference finals would materially alter which individual players are in position to win MVP honors
What moved the line
- May 6Cade Cunningham↑11pp16→27¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Jalen Brunson↑10pp20→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Jalen Brunson↑8pp30→38¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Cade Cunningham↑5pp7→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Cade Cunningham↑4pp12→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.