SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 6 outcomes6 contractsKalshirefreshed 3 min agoCloses Apr 12, 2027 · 338d

Who will win Eastern Conference Finals MVP

Leader sits at 28% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

28%

Cade Cunningham

runner-up 28¢leader 28¢

Outcomes

6

winner-take-all

Runner-up

28¢

Jalen Brunson

Spread

0pp

contested

24h volume

$3K

modest

Closes

Apr 12, 2027

338 days

Venue

Kalshi

6 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayCade Cunningham: 25% (28 days, 26 points)Cade Cunningham: 25% on 2026-05-08Jalen Brunson: 38% (28 days, 19 points)Jalen Brunson: 38% on 2026-05-08Donovan Mitchell: 10% (28 days, 14 points)Donovan Mitchell: 10% on 2026-05-08
Cade Cunningham25¢Jalen Brunson38¢Donovan Mitchell10¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 28d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The 24% probability indicates traders believe Philadelphia has roughly a one-in-four chance of winning the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP award. This price reflects Philadelphia's implied path to the conference championship combined with individual player performance uncertainty. Trading volume is concentrated on conference championship outcomes rather than MVP attribution, suggesting uncertainty around both team advancement and individual award voting. The probability could shift based on playoff seeding changes, injury developments, or shifts in team performance as the postseason approaches. The Eastern Conference Finals themselves will provide the ultimate resolution point—trading on MVP outcomes depends entirely on which team reaches that stage and how individual players perform during the series.

  • Philadelphia's implied conference championship win probability (~13% from Kalshi data) serves as a ceiling for their MVP chances, constraining how high this probability can move
  • New York's higher championship probability (41%) and Detroit/Cleveland at 20% each suggest market-implied talent distribution, affecting which teams are favored to produce a Finals MVP
  • The 24% reading for the leading contract substantially exceeds any single runner-up at 17%, indicating concentration on one player rather than dispersed voting risk
  • 24-hour volume of $862,365 on Philadelphia's championship contract dwarfs the $25,760 on the NBA Finals outcome, revealing limited direct MVP trading relative to championship betting
  • Playoff injuries, role changes, or trading deadline moves before the conference finals would materially alter which individual players are in position to win MVP honors

What moved the line

  • May 6Cade Cunningham11pp1627¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Jalen Brunson10pp2030¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8Jalen Brunson8pp3038¢ · Kalshi
  • May 2Cade Cunningham5pp712¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3Cade Cunningham4pp1216¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.