Who will win Finals MVP
Leader sits at 58% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Victor Wembanyama
Spread
45pp
contested
24h volume
$13K
liquid
Closes
Apr 12, 2027
338 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win Finals MVP
Who will win Finals MVP?: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
KXNBAFINMVP-26-SGIL
Who will win Finals MVP?: Victor Wembanyama
KXNBAFINMVP-26-VWEM
Who will win Finals MVP?: Jalen Brunson
KXNBAFINMVP-26-JBRU
Who will win Finals MVP?: Anthony Edwards
KXNBAFINMVP-26-AEDW
Who will win Finals MVP?: Cade Cunningham
KXNBAFINMVP-26-CCUN
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has a 53% chance of winning the NBA Finals MVP award. The elevated probability for SGA likely reflects his team's performance trajectory and individual statistics during the 2025-26 season, while the 18% probability for Wembanyama suggests meaningful but secondary consideration. Market prices would shift based on playoff seeding outcomes, injury status of top candidates, and team success rates as the postseason unfolds. The primary uncertainty will resolve during the NBA Finals, scheduled for June 2026, where Finals MVP voting depends both on individual performance and which team wins the championship. Current trading volume remains modest, suggesting limited conviction across the full market.
- ›SGA's team must reach the Finals for him to be eligible; his probability is partially contingent on his team's playoff path and championship odds
- ›Head-to-head statistical comparison between SGA and other candidates (particularly Wembanyama) during regular season closing and playoff performance
- ›Injury status and availability of all top candidates through the Finals; any significant absence would restructure market probabilities
- ›Championship favorability of SGA's team versus competing teams; Finals MVP typically goes to players on the winning team
- ›Trading volume concentration ($3,378 on SGA contract) is lower than secondary candidates, indicating potential for repricing as playoffs approach
What moved the line
- May 6Victor Wembanyama↓7pp18→11¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Shai Gilgeous-Alexander↑5pp53→58¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Jalen Brunson↑5pp2→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Shai Gilgeous-Alexander↑4pp47→51¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Victor Wembanyama↑4pp14→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.