SimpleFunctions
18 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses May 23, 2026 · 14d

Cade Cunningham: 2+ steals

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 18 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

47%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

47%

18 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$1K

18 contracts

Closes

May 23, 2026

14 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 4% on 2026-05-08
Aggregate of 18 contracts · 1d

Bracket families

10 clusters across 18 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “LeBron James” vs “Marcus Smart”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

LeBron James

3 contracts$192

Cluster 2

Marcus Smart

3 contracts$8

Cluster 3

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

3 contracts$0

Cluster 4

Cade Cunningham

2 contracts$110

Cluster 5

Tobias Harris

2 contracts$22

Cluster 6

Donovan Mitchell: 1+ steals: Donovan Mitchell: 1+

1 contract$497

Cluster 7

Ausar Thompson: 1+ steals: Ausar Thompson: 1+

1 contract$339

Cluster 8

James Harden: 1+ steals: James Harden: 1+

1 contract$156

Cluster 9

Evan Mobley: 1+ steals: Evan Mobley: 1+

1 contract$10

Cluster 10

Luguentz Dort: 1+ steals: Luguentz Dort: 1+

1 contract$0

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.