Cade Cunningham: 2+ steals
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
47%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
18 contracts
Closes
May 23, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “LeBron James” vs “Marcus Smart”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
LeBron James
Cluster 2
Marcus Smart
Cluster 3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 1+ steals: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 1+
KXNBASTL-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKCSGILGEOUSALEXANDER2-1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3+ steals: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3+
KXNBASTL-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKCSGILGEOUSALEXANDER2-3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 2+ steals: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 2+
KXNBASTL-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKCSGILGEOUSALEXANDER2-2
Cluster 4
Cade Cunningham
Cluster 5
Tobias Harris
Cluster 6
Donovan Mitchell: 1+ steals: Donovan Mitchell: 1+
Donovan Mitchell: 1+ steals: Donovan Mitchell: 1+
KXNBASTL-26MAY09DETCLE-CLEDMITCHELL45-1
Cluster 7
Ausar Thompson: 1+ steals: Ausar Thompson: 1+
Ausar Thompson: 1+ steals: Ausar Thompson: 1+
KXNBASTL-26MAY09DETCLE-DETATHOMPSON9-1
Cluster 8
James Harden: 1+ steals: James Harden: 1+
James Harden: 1+ steals: James Harden: 1+
KXNBASTL-26MAY09DETCLE-CLEJHARDEN1-1
Cluster 9
Evan Mobley: 1+ steals: Evan Mobley: 1+
Evan Mobley: 1+ steals: Evan Mobley: 1+
KXNBASTL-26MAY09DETCLE-CLEEMOBLEY4-1
Cluster 10
Luguentz Dort: 1+ steals: Luguentz Dort: 1+
Luguentz Dort: 1+ steals: Luguentz Dort: 1+
KXNBASTL-26MAY09OKCLAL-OKCLDORT5-1
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.