Will North Carolina State be the Auburn Regional champions
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+5pp
39h ago
24h volume
$43K
19 contracts
Closes
Jun 16, 2026
18 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Arkansas be the Lawrence Regional champions
Will Arkansas be the Lawrence Regional champions?: Arkansas
KXNCAABBREG-26LAW-ARK
Cluster 2
Will Ole Miss be the Lincoln Regional champions
Will Ole Miss be the Lincoln Regional champions?: Ole Miss
KXNCAABBREG-26LINC-OLE
Cluster 3
Will USC Upstate be the Tuscaloosa Regional champions
Will USC Upstate be the Tuscaloosa Regional champions?: USC Upstate
KXNCAABBREG-26TUSC-CUS
Cluster 4
Will Florida be the Gainesville Regional champions
Will Florida be the Gainesville Regional champions?: Florida
KXNCAABBREG-26GAIN-FLG
Cluster 5
Will Southern Miss be the Hattiesburg Regional champions
Will Southern Miss be the Hattiesburg Regional champions?: Southern Miss
KXNCAABBREG-26HATT-SGE
Cluster 6
Will Nebraska be the Lincoln Regional champions
Will Nebraska be the Lincoln Regional champions?: Nebraska
KXNCAABBREG-26LINC-NEC
Cluster 7
Will Wake Forest be the Morgantown Regional champions
Will Wake Forest be the Morgantown Regional champions?: Wake Forest
KXNCAABBREG-26MORG-WFD
Cluster 8
Will Texas A&M be the College Station Regional champions
Will Texas A&M be the College Station Regional champions?: Texas A&M
KXNCAABBREG-26COLL-TAM
Cluster 9
Will Tennessee be the Chapel Hill Regional champions
Will Tennessee be the Chapel Hill Regional champions?: Tennessee
KXNCAABBREG-26CHAP-TEN
Cluster 10
Will Miami (FL) be the Gainesville Regional champions
Will Miami (FL) be the Gainesville Regional champions?: Miami (FL)
KXNCAABBREG-26GAIN-MIA
Cluster 11
Will Louisiana be the Starkville Regional champions
Will Louisiana be the Starkville Regional champions?: Louisiana
KXNCAABBREG-26STAR-LAL
Cluster 12
Will Yale be the Eugene Regional champions
Will Yale be the Eugene Regional champions?: Yale
KXNCAABBREG-26EUG-YAL
Cluster 13
Will Arizona State be the Lincoln Regional champions
Will Arizona State be the Lincoln Regional champions?: Arizona State
KXNCAABBREG-26LINC-ARS
Cluster 14
Will Oregon State be the Eugene Regional champions
Will Oregon State be the Eugene Regional champions?: Oregon State
KXNCAABBREG-26EUG-OSB
Cluster 15
Will Texas be the Austin Regional champions
Will Texas be the Austin Regional champions?: Texas
KXNCAABBREG-26AUST-TEL
Cluster 16
Will Oklahoma State be the Tuscaloosa Regional champions
Will Oklahoma State be the Tuscaloosa Regional champions?: Oklahoma State
KXNCAABBREG-26TUSC-OSC
Cluster 17
Will Cincinnati be the Starkville Regional champions
Will Cincinnati be the Starkville Regional champions?: Cincinnati
KXNCAABBREG-26STAR-CIB
Cluster 18
Will Georgia be the Athens Regional champions
Will Georgia be the Athens Regional champions?: Georgia
KXNCAABBREG-26ATH-GEO
Cluster 19
Will USC be the College Station Regional champions
Will USC be the College Station Regional champions?: USC
KXNCAABBREG-26COLL-USC
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that NC State wins the Auburn Regional of the NCAA Division I baseball tournament. At 32%, the market suggests NC State is a moderate contender but faces significant competition from other regional teams. The probability is influenced by the team's regular season performance, NCAA tournament seeding, and strength of opponent matchups within the Auburn Regional bracket. The resolution of this market depends on the outcome of the regional tournament games, which typically occur in early June during the NCAA tournament. The market will move based on final tournament seeding announcements, any roster changes due to injuries, and early-round game results that indicate actual team performance in tournament play.
- ›NC State's NCAA tournament seeding and opponent draw in the Auburn Regional, which determines path to championship
- ›Team injury status and player availability heading into the tournament, affecting roster depth and competitive capability
- ›Historical performance of NC State against teams projected to be in the Auburn Regional, if lineup is predetermined
- ›Other regional contenders' relative strength and demonstrated performance, impacting comparative odds within the bracket
- ›Head-to-head strength indicators like RPI rankings, recent win-loss records, and tournament experience of key roster players
What moved the line
- May 27Texas↑18pp65→83¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Texas A&M↑13pp46→59¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Miami (FL)↑10pp11→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Florida↑9pp55→64¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Southern Miss↑9pp36→45¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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