Will Eric Moyer be the Democratic nominee for NE-01
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$253
4 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
543 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Eric Moyer be the Democratic nominee for NE-01
Will Eric Moyer be the Democratic nominee for NE-01?: Eric Moyer
KXNEPRIMARY-01D26-EMOY
Cluster 2
Will David Huebner be the Republican nominee for NE-03
Will David Huebner be the Republican nominee for NE-03?: David Huebner
KXNEPRIMARY-03R26-DHUE
Cluster 3
Will Adrian Smith be the Republican nominee for NE-03
Will Adrian Smith be the Republican nominee for NE-03?: Adrian Smith
KXNEPRIMARY-03R26-ASMI
Cluster 4
Will Chris Backemeyer be the Democratic nominee for NE-01
Will Chris Backemeyer be the Democratic nominee for NE-01?: Chris Backemeyer
KXNEPRIMARY-01D26-CBAC
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's current assessment that Eric Moyer has a 63% chance of becoming the Democratic nominee for Nebraska's 1st congressional district. The estimate is based on limited contract volume across three Kalshi markets. Key drivers of this probability include Moyer's existing political profile, any primary opposition he faces, and recent polling or endorsement patterns within Nebraska's Democratic establishment. The main catalyst that would resolve this uncertainty is Nebraska's Democratic primary election, scheduled for the 2026 midterm cycle. Other significant factors include fundraising totals relative to competitors, turnout patterns in Democratic-leaning areas of the district, and any shifts in national Democratic Party resource allocation to competitive House races.
- ›Eric Moyer's prior electoral performance and name recognition in NE-01, if any
- ›Number and viability of competing Democratic primary candidates in the race
- ›Campaign fundraising totals and spending patterns relative to opponents through mid-2026
- ›Endorsements from Nebraska Democratic Party leadership and prominent local figures
- ›Voter turnout expectations in Democratic primary relative to historical midterm participation rates
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.