Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
10%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?
0xc8f759…de74
Analysis
This market estimates an 11% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu receives a pardon by June 30, 2026. Netanyahu faces multiple legal cases in Israeli courts, and a pardon would require either a change in political circumstances or legal developments that alter the feasibility of such action. The current low probability reflects the legal and political obstacles to securing a pardon within the next two months. Key considerations include whether Netanyahu's coalition remains stable, how his legal proceedings advance, and whether international or domestic political pressure shifts. The primary catalyst will be developments in the Israeli Supreme Court's ongoing review of pardon procedures and any changes in government composition that might affect pardon authority or willingness.
- ›Netanyahu's coalition stability—a government collapse could shift political calculus around legal immunity and pardons
- ›Status of Israeli Supreme Court proceedings challenging pardon authority and Netanyahu's eligibility for executive clemency
- ›Pace and outcome of Netanyahu's ongoing criminal trials on charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust
- ›Whether new political developments emerge that increase pressure for legal resolution through pardon mechanisms
- ›Timeline constraints—only 58 days remain until the June 30 deadline for a pardon to take effect
What moved the line
- May 2Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?↓4pp17→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?↓4pp13→9¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.