Winner-take-all · 5 outcomes5 contractsKalshirefreshed 3 min agoCloses May 12, 2026 · 3d

#2 US Netflix Show on Apr 27, 2026

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 56% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

56%

Man on Fire: Season 1

0¢runner-up 11¢leader 56¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

11¢

Worst Ex Ever: Season 2

Spread

45pp

contested

24h volume

$9K

modest

Closes

May 12, 2026

3 days

Venue

Kalshi

5 bound

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Man on Fire: Season 125¢Worst Ex Ever: Season 27¢Homicide Squad: New Orleans: Season 15¢

Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

#2 US Netflix Show on May 11, 2026

5 contracts$9K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

#2 US Netflix Show on May 11, 2026?: Should I Marry A Murderer?: Limited Series

KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWRUNNERUP-26MAY11-SHO

4¢+4pp$7KK→

#2 US Netflix Show on May 11, 2026?: Man on Fire: Season 1

KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWRUNNERUP-26MAY11-MAN

56¢+12pp$2KK→

#2 US Netflix Show on May 11, 2026?: Worst Ex Ever: Season 2

KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWRUNNERUP-26MAY11-WOR

11¢—$959K→

#2 US Netflix Show on May 11, 2026?: The Roast of Kevin Hart

KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWRUNNERUP-26MAY11-ROA

4¢—$73K→

#2 US Netflix Show on May 11, 2026?: Homicide Squad: New Orleans: Season 1

KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWRUNNERUP-26MAY11-HOM

6¢—$0K→

What moved the line

May 8Man on Fire: Season 1↑12pp13→25¢ · Kalshi
May 8Should I Marry A Murderer?: Limited Series↑4pp16→20¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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In general

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.

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