Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 35 million views
Leader sits at 96% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 82%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 6 million
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
82¢
At least 9 million
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
May 12, 2026
3 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least
Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 15 million views?: At least 15 million
KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV-26MAY11-15
Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 12 million views?: At least 12 million
KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV-26MAY11-12
Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 9 million views?: At least 9 million
KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV-26MAY11-9
Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 6 million views?: At least 6 million
KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV-26MAY11-6
Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 18 million views?: At least 18 million
KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV-26MAY11-18
What moved the line
- May 7At least 12 million↑15pp17→32¢ · Kalshi
- May 7At least 9 million↑14pp67→81¢ · Kalshi
- May 8At least 9 million↑10pp81→91¢ · Kalshi
- May 7At least 6 million↑7pp85→92¢ · Kalshi
- May 8At least 15 million↑3pp4→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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