Netherlands vs. Japan
Leader sits at 48% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Netherlands
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Japan
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$988
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 14, 2026
36 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Netherlands vs. Japan
Analysis
This probability indicates that prediction markets estimate a 49% chance the Netherlands defeats Japan in an upcoming match, with a 28% probability for Japan and 24% for a draw. The Netherlands is currently favored, though the market shows meaningful uncertainty. The pricing likely reflects team form, recent head-to-head records, and player availability. Key factors driving movement would include injury reports, lineup announcements, or updated betting odds from traditional sportsbooks. The match itself represents the primary catalyst that will resolve the outcome definitively. Market liquidity varies significantly across contracts, with the Netherlands winner contract showing the highest 24-hour volume ($178), suggesting that's where most traders are positioning themselves.
- ›Netherlands priced at 49% reflects a modest favorite status, not consensus—nearly half the probability mass is distributed to Japan (28%) and Draw (24%)
- ›24-hour trading volume concentrates on Kalshi's Netherlands winner contract ($178), indicating that venue may be setting the marginal price
- ›Draw probability of 24% is material and suggests regular-time competition; resolution mechanism (draw allowed vs. knockout tiebreaker) would affect contract payouts
- ›Japan contract pricing is fragmented across platforms (25¢ on Kalshi vs. 28¢ on Polymarket), indicating potential arbitrage opportunities or venue-specific liquidity differences
- ›Upcoming match date and team sheet announcements would be primary catalysts to move probabilities, as would any late injury disclosures to key players
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.