Netherlands vs. Sweden
Leader sits at 56% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Netherlands
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Draw (Netherlands vs. Sweden
Spread
31pp
contested
24h volume
$17
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 20, 2026
42 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Netherlands vs. Sweden
Analysis
This probability indicates that traders assess Netherlands at a 51% chance to win against Sweden, with Sweden at 26% and a draw at 23%. The market is pricing Netherlands as a slight favorite, though the narrow margin reflects meaningful uncertainty about the outcome. Key drivers include each team's recent form, head-to-head historical performance, and tactical matchups. The match result itself will fully resolve this contract, making the actual game the primary catalyst for price movement. Until the match is played, expectations about team lineups, injuries, or venue conditions could shift trader sentiment either direction.
- ›Netherlands is priced at 51¢ versus Sweden at 26¢, indicating a 25-percentage-point gap in implied win probability rather than a near-tie
- ›The draw option holds 23% implied probability, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about whether the match reaches a decisive result
- ›Trading volume on the direct Netherlands contract is minimal ($5 24h volume), indicating limited recent activity and potentially less liquidity to defend the current price
- ›Related contracts show mixed signals: Netherlands-Japan is nearly even (49¢ vs 51¢), while Japan alone prices at 28¢, requiring consistency across the linked outcomes
- ›The market structure depends on three separate binary contracts that must sum to consistent probabilities, creating arbitrage pressure if mispricing exists between them
What moved the line
- May 7Netherlands↑3pp50→53¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Sweden↓3pp22→19¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.