New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets
Leader sits at 66% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 53%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
53¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: New York City FC (-1.5)
0x52ecc5…1539
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0e25b5…6674
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x361d08…fcba
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x3b1359…c2a6
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x087e96…4031
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xfb53dd…2bf6
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)
0x8cd527…d5dd
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: New York City FC (-2.5)
0x749d60…214e
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)
0xe4ead2…9aca
Analysis
This 51% probability indicates that market participants view New York City FC as slightly more likely than Los Angeles FC to win this matchup. The probability reflects recent form, head-to-head records, and home/away considerations in the 2025-26 season. Factors moving this probability include team roster changes, injury status of key players, and recent performance trends. The market shows some divergence across contracts—the winner market prices New York at 54% while other predictive markets suggest lower confidence—suggesting uncertainty about underlying team strength. The resolution event occurs when these teams complete their match; the immediate catalyst is the scheduled game date, after which the outcome becomes definitive.
- ›Polymarket aggregates five distinct contracts with significant price dispersion (21¢ to 54¢), indicating genuine analytical disagreement rather than consensus
- ›New York's 54% win probability on the direct matchup contract carries $2,958 in 24-hour volume, the highest among winner-market contracts, but represents a modest advantage not a strong favorite
- ›Los Angeles is priced at 45% in the head-to-head contract, only 9 percentage points below New York despite the 51% headline, suggesting the contracts are measuring different timeframes or market conditions
- ›Total runs markets (54¢ for Over 8.5 runs) imply expected offensive output assumptions that should be reconciled with historical performance patterns
- ›The current leading contract holder (0x361d0825fd5d45ed9f9fffca2764928f720727ea72d2576db6974c6d2de1fcba) has positioned at 51%, which exceeds both the direct winner-market prices and runner-up position, indicating potential mispricing or information edge
What moved the line
- May 6New York City FC (-2.5)↓8pp34→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Los Angeles FC (-2.5)↓8pp33→25¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Los Angeles FC (-2.5)↑8pp25→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Los Angeles FC (-1.5)↑6pp27→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Los Angeles FC (-1.5)↑5pp27→32¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 d ago.