New Zealand vs. Egypt
Leader sits at 55% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Egypt
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Draw (New Zealand vs. Egypt)
Spread
31pp
contested
24h volume
$12
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 22, 2026
44 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
New Zealand vs. Egypt
Analysis
This represents the current expectation that Egypt will win in a New Zealand vs. Egypt matchup. At 56%, Egypt is favored but not heavily — the runner-up sits at 27%, indicating meaningful uncertainty about the outcome. The probability reflects assessments of team strength, recent performance, and home-field advantages. Key drivers of this level include squad composition, recent form in competitive matches, and any injuries to key players heading into the fixture. The resolution will depend on the actual match result whenever this event is scheduled. Market participants appear to be pricing in Egypt as the slight favorite based on available information, though the gap to second place suggests this is contested and subject to shift as more data emerges.
- ›Current squad health and availability of key players for both teams
- ›Head-to-head historical record and recent performance in qualifying or tournament play
- ›Home-field advantage status and venue logistics if applicable
- ›Recent form in competitive international matches prior to fixture
- ›Market depth and trading volume remain modest, suggesting limited institutional liquidity behind this price
What moved the line
- May 7New Zealand↓4pp25→21¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.