Who will be the next CEO of X
Leader sits at 10% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Elon Musk
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Nikita Bier
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$633
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be the next CEO of X
Analysis
This probability reflects a 22% chance that Elon Musk will be the next CEO of X (formerly Twitter), based on market pricing from derivatives contracts. Market participants are assessing whether Musk, who currently serves as CEO, will remain in the role or be replaced. The pricing reflects uncertainty around potential leadership transitions driven by operational factors, regulatory changes, or strategic shifts at the company. Key considerations include X's current financial performance and user growth trends, potential pressure from major stakeholders or advertisers, and Musk's involvement with other companies like Tesla and xAI that compete for his attention. The runway to clarity depends on official company announcements or significant operational developments that would signal leadership changes. Markets also price in broader economic and social media industry conditions that could trigger management transitions.
- ›Musk's active involvement with multiple companies (Tesla, xAI, Neuralog) while serving as X CEO, creating potential for delegation or replacement
- ›X's advertising revenue recovery and user retention metrics, as weak performance could trigger board-level pressure for leadership change
- ›Regulatory actions or legal challenges against X or Musk personally that could prompt a CEO transition
- ›Official statements from Musk or X's board regarding leadership succession plans or strategic changes
- ›Comparison contracts showing other candidates (runners-up at 6%) trading at significantly lower levels, indicating market concentration in Musk remaining but meaningful uncertainty
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.