Who will be the next manager of Chelsea
Leader sits at 42% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Xabi Alonso
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
Andoni Iraola
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$599
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 8, 2026
122 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be the next manager of Chelsea
Who will be the next manager of Chelsea?: Andoni Iraola
KXNEXTMANAGEREPL-26CFC-AIRA
Who will be the next manager of Chelsea?: Xabi Alonso
KXNEXTMANAGEREPL-26CFC-XALO
Who will be the next manager of Chelsea?: Frank Lampard
KXNEXTMANAGEREPL-26CFC-FLAM
Who will be the next manager of Chelsea?: Julian Nagelsmann
KXNEXTMANAGEREPL-26CFC-JNAG
Who will be the next manager of Chelsea?: Filipe Luis
KXNEXTMANAGEREPL-26CFC-FLUI
Who will be the next manager of Chelsea?: Diego Simeone
KXNEXTMANAGEREPL-26CFC-DSIM
Who will be the next manager of Chelsea?: Xavi Hernandez
KXNEXTMANAGEREPL-26CFC-XHER
Who will be the next manager of Chelsea?: Enzo Maresca
KXNEXTMANAGEREPL-26CFC-EMAR
Who will be the next manager of Chelsea?: Marco Silva
KXNEXTMANAGEREPL-26CFC-MSIL
Who will be the next manager of Chelsea?: Oliver Glasner
KXNEXTMANAGEREPL-26CFC-OGLA
Who will be the next manager of Chelsea?: Cesc Fabregas
KXNEXTMANAGEREPL-26CFC-CFAB
Analysis
Andoni Iraola is currently the leading candidate to become Chelsea's next manager with a 24% implied probability, meaning bettors estimate roughly a one-in-four chance he fills the role. This reflects the multi-candidate nature of managerial transitions, where multiple qualified candidates typically compete for high-profile positions. The probability would rise if Iraola moves closer to formal negotiations with Chelsea or if competing candidates are ruled out through appointment elsewhere. It would fall if Chelsea publicly pursues alternative candidates or if Iraola secures his position at a current club long-term. The key catalyst remains Chelsea's decision timeline—whether the club accelerates a managerial search immediately or delays announcement, which would resolve uncertainty and consolidate probability mass around the eventual appointment.
- ›Iraola's current employment status and contractual flexibility with his existing club
- ›Number and caliber of competing candidates still in active consideration for the role
- ›Public statements or reporting from Chelsea leadership regarding managerial search timeline and priorities
- ›Track record of other manager-to-Chelsea transitions and typical decision velocity for the club
- ›Whether other top clubs in Europe make competing managerial appointments, reducing the candidate pool
What moved the line
- May 6Xabi Alonso↓17pp40→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Xabi Alonso↑11pp31→42¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Xabi Alonso↑8pp23→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Marco Silva↓4pp13→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Cesc Fabregas↑3pp1→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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