Who will be the next Manager of the Boston Red Sox
Leader sits at 43% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Chad Tracy
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
Don Mattingly
Spread
21pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
206 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be the next Manager of
Who will be the next Manager of the Boston Red Sox?: Jason Varitek
KXNEXTMANAGERMLB-BOS26-JVAR
Who will be the next Manager of the Boston Red Sox?: Chad Tracy
KXNEXTMANAGERMLB-BOS26-CTRA
Who will be the next Manager of the Philadelphia Phillies?: Don Mattingly
KXNEXTMANAGERMLB-PHI26-DMAT
Who will be the next Manager of the Philadelphia Phillies?: Alex Cora
KXNEXTMANAGERMLB-PHI26-ACOR
Analysis
Chad Tracy is priced at 43% as the next manager of the Boston Red Sox, reflecting that traders view him as the most likely candidate but not the consensus favorite. The Red Sox managerial job becomes available when the current manager is replaced, either through voluntary resignation or dismissal—a decision ultimately controlled by Red Sox management. The probability reflects market participants' assessment of Tracy's likelihood relative to other candidates, including Jason Varitek (6¢) and Andrew Bailey (11¢). Key factors driving the price include Tracy's managerial experience, his relationship with Red Sox ownership and front office, recent team performance and organizational direction, and whether competing candidates receive endorsement or interviews. The resolution date is contingent on when Red Sox ownership formally announces a new manager, which could occur immediately or extend across the offseason depending on the timing of the current manager's departure and the organization's decision-making process.
- ›Chad Tracy's prior managerial experience and track record in Major League Baseball or affiliated organizations
- ›Current Red Sox managerial status and stated timeline for any potential transition or replacement
- ›Public reporting on which candidates have been interviewed, endorsed, or are actively pursuing the position
- ›Relative experience and public visibility of competing candidates like Varitek and Bailey in managerial roles
- ›Red Sox organizational structure and decision-making authority regarding manager selection
What moved the line
- May 7Alex Cora↑3pp9→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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