Nexus FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 73% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 67%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$100M
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
67¢
$200M
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Nexus FDV above ___ one day after launch
Nexus FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0x607239…cd2b
Nexus FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0x7887d9…d9d0
Nexus FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0x36f4d1…9987
Nexus FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0xc88b7a…6ff5
Nexus FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M
0xc8ffdf…dec5
Analysis
This market estimates the probability that a protocol's fully diluted valuation will exceed $100 million within one day of its launch. The 94% probability reflects high confidence in this outcome, though it's worth noting this represents a specific contract among six related options with varying valuations ($50M to $1B). The probability is driven primarily by two factors: comparable project launches that achieved similar or higher valuations quickly, and the apparent demand signal reflected in the market's willingness to price this scenario so high. The key uncertainty centers on actual launch execution—whether the protocol delivers on its technical roadmap and whether market conditions remain favorable through the launch date. The resolution event is binary and deterministic: the protocol's FDV measurement one day post-launch will either exceed or fall short of $100M, making this a calendar-dependent outcome that becomes clear on a specific date rather than through gradual information accumulation.
- ›Historical comparable launches: Recent protocol launches in similar categories have achieved $100M+ FDVs within 24 hours, providing a data anchor for this projection
- ›Minimum valuation threshold: The $100M threshold is relatively modest compared to other contracts in this market (up to $1B), suggesting most uncertainty lies above this level rather than below
- ›Launch date timing and market conditions: Protocol viability depends on execution at a time when broader crypto market sentiment supports new token valuations
- ›Contract volume distribution: The $50M contract at 94¢ and $100M contract at 89¢ show narrow probability separation, indicating consensus that the protocol will likely clear both thresholds
- ›No scheduled delays announced: Absence of public delays or technical setbacks as of the current date supports the baseline probability
What moved the line
- May 8$300M↑20pp48→68¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$100M↓14pp63→49¢ · Polymarket
- May 7$300M↑13pp35→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$100M↓9pp73→64¢ · Polymarket
- May 8$200M↑9pp61→70¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.