NHL Vezina Trophy Winner
Leader sits at 94% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Jeremy Swayman
Spread
90pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$80
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
26 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NHL Vezina Trophy Winner
Analysis
The 89% probability reflects market confidence that Ilya Sorokin will win the 2026 NHL Vezina Trophy, awarded to the league's best goaltender. This high likelihood is driven by Sorokin's recent performance metrics and likely reflects strong regular-season statistics through early May 2026. The probability could shift if a competing goaltender demonstrates superior save percentage, goals-against average, or wins down the stretch, or if Sorokin experiences injury or decline. The Vezina winner is typically announced in June following the regular season conclusion, making upcoming playoff performance and final-season statistics the primary catalyst for resolving this market. Trading volume remains relatively modest across contracts, suggesting limited recent conviction changes among market participants.
- ›Sorokin's save percentage and goals-against average compared to other top candidates through the 2025-26 regular season
- ›Number of wins and games played by Sorokin versus competing goaltenders—durability is historically weighted in Vezina voting
- ›Late-season injury or performance decline for Sorokin or emergence of an alternative candidate with superior statistical case
- ›Playoff performance of Sorokin's team and whether he maintains elite metrics through June
- ›Historical voting patterns of the professional voters who determine the award, which sometimes diverge from raw statistics
What moved the line
- May 28Jeremy Swayman↓8pp11→3¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3Andrei Vasilevskiy↑3pp92→95¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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