Who will win Calder Memorial Trophy
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$119
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win Calder Memorial Trophy
Who will win Calder Memorial Trophy?: Ivan Demidov
KXNHLCALDER-26-IDEM
Analysis
At 5%, the current leader has a 1-in-20 chance of winning the Calder Memorial Trophy, based on Kalshi contract pricing. The Calder, awarded annually to the NHL's top rookie, typically favors players on playoff teams with strong offensive or defensive production through the regular season. The probability reflects assessments of remaining games and final statistics before the award announcement, likely in June 2026. Factors affecting this level include the player's team's playoff success, individual performance trajectory in remaining games, and how voters weight offensive versus defensive contributions. The award will be decided by the Professional Hockey Writers' Association vote following the season's conclusion, making roster performance and narrative momentum in the final weeks significant drivers of perception.
- ›Player's remaining regular-season performance and games played relative to other rookie contenders
- ›Team playoff qualification and performance, as voters often favor rookies on successful franchises
- ›Head-to-head statistical comparison with other leading candidates in goals, assists, and defensive metrics
- ›Voting patterns of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association regarding positional weight and narrative momentum
- ›Injury risk or playing-time changes for the contract leader versus competing rookies in the final stretch
What moved the line
- May 7Ivan Demidov↓4pp6→2¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.