Artemi Panarin
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
3 contracts
Top contract
3¢
$2K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Pavel Dorofeyev: First Goalscorer: Pavel Dorofeyev” vs “Mitch Marner: First Goalscorer: Mitch Marner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Pavel Dorofeyev: First Goalscorer: Pavel Dorofeyev
Pavel Dorofeyev: First Goalscorer: Pavel Dorofeyev
KXNHLFIRSTGOAL-26MAY06ANAVGK-VGKPDOROFEYEV16
Cluster 2
Mitch Marner: First Goalscorer: Mitch Marner
Mitch Marner: First Goalscorer: Mitch Marner
KXNHLFIRSTGOAL-26MAY06ANAVGK-VGKMMARNER93
Cluster 3
Ivan Barbashev: First Goalscorer: Ivan Barbashev
Ivan Barbashev: First Goalscorer: Ivan Barbashev
KXNHLFIRSTGOAL-26MAY06ANAVGK-VGKIBARBASHEV49
Analysis
This 3% probability reflects the chance that Artemi Panarin will experience a significant career disruption or departure from professional hockey by a specified date. The low probability indicates strong consensus that Panarin will continue playing at his current level without major interruption. The main factors keeping this probability low are his established NHL status, recent contract stability, and lack of reported health or personal issues that would typically trigger such events. Upward pressure would come from serious injuries, unexpected retirement, or major personal circumstances. The resolution will depend on whether Panarin completes his current contract term and remains active in professional play, with clarity typically emerging through the NHL season and any off-season developments affecting his playing status or roster positioning.
- ›Panarin's current contract status and expiration date determine the specific time window for this prediction
- ›Significant injuries or health emergencies would be the primary mechanism pushing this probability higher
- ›Trade activity or roster moves involving Panarin would immediately affect market pricing and represent concrete, observable data
- ›His performance metrics and playing time over the relevant period provide measurable evidence of continued professional engagement
- ›Age and career arc relative to typical NHL player timelines serve as baseline historical reference points
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.