Adrian Kempe: 3+ points
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$194
10 contracts
Top contract
4¢
$143 · Kalshi
Bracket families
7 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Jackson LaCombe” vs “Cutter Gauthier”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Jackson LaCombe
Cluster 2
Cutter Gauthier
Cluster 3
Jack Eichel
Cluster 4
Alex Killorn: 1+ points: Alex Killorn: 1+
Alex Killorn: 1+ points: Alex Killorn: 1+
KXNHLPTS-26MAY08VGKANA-ANAAKILLORN17-1
Cluster 5
Beckett Sennecke: 1+ points: Beckett Sennecke: 1+
Beckett Sennecke: 1+ points: Beckett Sennecke: 1+
KXNHLPTS-26MAY08VGKANA-ANABSENNECKE45-1
Cluster 6
Chris Kreider: 1+ points: Chris Kreider: 1+
Chris Kreider: 1+ points: Chris Kreider: 1+
KXNHLPTS-26MAY08VGKANA-ANACKREIDER20-1
Cluster 7
Ivan Barbashev: 1+ points: Ivan Barbashev: 1+
Ivan Barbashev: 1+ points: Ivan Barbashev: 1+
KXNHLPTS-26MAY08VGKANA-VGKIBARBASHEV49-1
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 h ago.