NJ/NY Gotham FC vs. Boston Legacy FC
Leader sits at 71% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
NJ/NY Gotham FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Draw (NJ/NY Gotham FC vs. Bo
Spread
52pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$78
thin orderbook
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NJ/NY Gotham FC vs. Boston Legacy FC
Analysis
This 31% probability indicates that Boston Legacy FC is favored to win the NJ/NY Gotham FC matchup, with a near-statistical tie between that outcome and a draw at 30%. The market pricing suggests moderate confidence rather than overwhelming likelihood. Factors influencing this probability include each team's current form, head-to-head history, home-field advantage considerations, and any recent roster changes or injuries. The match outcome will be determined by the game itself, which serves as the singular resolution event. Until the match is played, the tight clustering of outcomes at 30-31% reflects genuine uncertainty about the result, with no outcome commanding substantial market consensus.
- ›Boston Legacy FC priced marginally higher than both a draw and NJ/NY Gotham FC (31% vs 30% vs runner-up outcome), indicating weak differentiation between top scenarios
- ›Two available contracts show zero 24-hour trading volume, suggesting low liquidity and limited recent market activity updating prices
- ›The three-way outcome structure (two teams plus draw) results in no single outcome exceeding one-third probability, indicating dispersed market expectations
- ›Recent form, injury status, and head-to-head historical performance would materially shift the probability if materially different from current market pricing
- ›The scheduled match date is the only resolution catalyst; pre-match announcements regarding lineup changes or external factors could shift probabilities before the game occurs
What moved the line
- May 8NJ/NY Gotham FC↑16pp54→70¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Boston Legacy FC↓15pp27→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Draw (NJ/NY Gotham FC vs. Boston Legacy FC)↓8pp28→20¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.