SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 h agoCloses May 9, 2026 · 0d

NJ/NY Gotham FC vs. Boston Legacy FC - More Markets

Leader sits at 81% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 51%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

81%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 51¢leader 81¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

51¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

30pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 9, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 67% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 1.5: 67% on 2026-05-08O/U 2.5: 50% on 2026-05-06NJ/NY Gotham FC (-1.5): 43% (3 days, 3 points)NJ/NY Gotham FC (-1.5): 43% on 2026-05-08
O/U 1.567¢O/U 2.550¢NJ/NY Gotham FC (-1.5)43¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The 51% probability reflects market expectation that both teams will score in this NJ/NY Gotham FC versus Boston Legacy FC matchup. This outcome sits at the top of the contract hierarchy, suggesting traders view it as more likely than either team winning by specific margins. The probability is driven by both teams' recent offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities—factors that would shift if injury reports or recent form suggest one side will adopt a defensive setup. The match itself, scheduled for a specific date, will resolve this uncertainty when final stats are recorded. Current volume at zero suggests limited recent trading activity, meaning the 51% reflects positions established earlier rather than fresh market adjustment.

  • Recent goal-scoring rates for both Gotham FC and Boston Legacy FC in their last 5-10 matches
  • Defensive records and defensive injuries for each squad that might influence tactical approach to this fixture
  • Head-to-head historical patterns between these teams regarding goal-scoring frequency
  • Weather conditions or pitch conditions reported for match day that could affect play intensity
  • Team motivation context—regular season positioning, playoff implications, or rest considerations

What moved the line

  • May 7Boston Legacy FC (-1.5)8pp2719¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7NJ/NY Gotham FC (-1.5)6pp3137¢ · Polymarket
  • May 8NJ/NY Gotham FC (-1.5)6pp3743¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Boston Legacy FC (-2.5)6pp2519¢ · Polymarket
  • May 8NJ/NY Gotham FC (-2.5)4pp3034¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.