SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 9, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 2 outcomes2 contractsPolymarketclosed 3 h agoCloses May 9, 2026 · 0d

NJ/NY Gotham FC vs. Boston Legacy FC - More Markets: NJ/NY Gotham FC (-1.5)

Leader sits at 45% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

45%

NJ/NY Gotham FC (-1.5)

runner-up 17¢leader 45¢

Outcomes

2

winner-take-all

Runner-up

17¢

NJ/NY Gotham FC (-2.5)

Spread

28pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 9, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

2 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayNJ/NY Gotham FC (-1.5): 43% (3 days, 3 points)NJ/NY Gotham FC (-1.5): 43% on 2026-05-08NJ/NY Gotham FC (-2.5): 34% (3 days, 3 points)NJ/NY Gotham FC (-2.5): 34% on 2026-05-08
NJ/NY Gotham FC (-1.5)43¢NJ/NY Gotham FC (-2.5)34¢
Top 2 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that NJ/NY Gotham FC will win by more than 1.5 goals against Boston Legacy FC. At 32%, traders are assigning this outcome less than one-third likelihood, suggesting the baseline expectation favors either a closer Gotham victory or a Boston win entirely. The probability is driven primarily by the teams' recent form, roster strength, and head-to-head dynamics. Home-field advantage, injury status of key players, and Boston's defensive capabilities would be the main factors determining whether this spread outcome becomes more or less likely. The match result itself—once played—will definitively resolve this contract, making actual game performance the sole determining factor.

  • Gotham's goal-scoring efficiency and Boston's defensive record this season
  • Whether the match is played at Gotham's home venue versus neutral or Boston's location
  • Injury or roster availability status of each team's starting forwards and defensive players
  • Historical head-to-head scoring margins between these two teams
  • Current league standings and momentum indicators as of the match date

What moved the line

  • May 7NJ/NY Gotham FC (-1.5)6pp3137¢ · Polymarket
  • May 8NJ/NY Gotham FC (-1.5)6pp3743¢ · Polymarket
  • May 8NJ/NY Gotham FC (-2.5)4pp3034¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7NJ/NY Gotham FC (-2.5)3pp2730¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (45% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.