NK Osijek vs. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb - More Markets: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (-1.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 5 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
50%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$882
5 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy” vs “Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Cluster 2
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd0a2f0…02d4
Cluster 3
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc6f8d0…d7bf
Cluster 4
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4612ca…3182
Cluster 5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x64562d…92f6
Analysis
This market reflects a 50% probability that NK Lokomotiva Zagreb will win by 2 or more goals against NK Osijek in an upcoming Croatian football match. The even split suggests significant uncertainty about the outcome. Lokomotiva Zagreb's recent form and home-field advantage (if applicable) would be primary factors pushing the probability up, while Osijek's defensive strength or recent results would weigh against it. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty when played, making the actual result the single decisive catalyst. Current pricing shows minimal trading volume across related markets, indicating limited liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. The comparable markets listed—primarily Asian football Over/Under 2.5 goals at 54-65 cents—suggest modest goal-scoring expectations across professional leagues on this date.
- ›Head-to-head record and recent form between NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Osijek in the 2025-26 Croatian season
- ›Goal differential and defensive performance metrics for both teams over their last 5-10 matches
- ›Whether the match is played at Lokomotiva's home stadium, where they typically have a statistical advantage
- ›Total trading volume and liquidity in this contract—current 50% pricing with minimal volume suggests limited consensus among market participants
- ›Injury status of key attacking and defensive players for both sides, which directly affects goal-scoring probability in a -1.5 spread bet
What moved the line
- May 6Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)↓20pp26→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 2.5↑9pp62→71¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.