Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 63% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 46%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$50M
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
46¢
$100M
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch
Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M
0xc7c99a…2dd5
Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B
0xf03fa1…fc7c
Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $700M
0x0fec7c…58c3
Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0x79faa4…2ce6
Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0x4057a1…987c
Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0x453a28…32e7
Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0xda27fc…369f
Analysis
This contract forecasts whether Noble's fully diluted valuation will exceed $1 billion within one day of its launch. The current 60% probability reflects moderate confidence in reaching that valuation threshold at debut. Market pricing suggests significant uncertainty, as related contracts show varying confidence levels across different FDV targets ($500M at 44¢ versus $100M at 89¢), indicating traders disagree on the likely launch valuation. The outcome depends primarily on investor demand at launch, the tokenomics structure, and comparable valuations within the blockchain infrastructure sector. Resolution will be determined by publicly available FDV calculations immediately following the token's market debut, making this sensitive to the exact launch date, initial token price discovery, and circulating supply methodology. Market fragmentation across competing prediction platforms suggests the forecast may shift substantially closer to launch as more information about Noble's fundraising and positioning emerges.
- ›Noble's previous funding rounds and valuation, if disclosed, provide a baseline for market expectations around launch valuations
- ›Token supply structure and unlock schedule directly determine FDV calculations, influencing whether $1B threshold is mathematically achievable at launch prices
- ›Comparable blockchain infrastructure projects' launch valuations establish a reference class for what similar-stage projects typically achieve
- ›Market conditions and cryptocurrency sentiment on launch day will significantly impact initial price discovery and token demand
- ›Timing of the actual launch date remains a key unknown variable affecting forecast resolution probability
What moved the line
- May 7$100M↑6pp41→47¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$50M↓3pp65→62¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$100M↑3pp38→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 7$300M↑3pp27→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$500M↑3pp21→24¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.