Norway vs. France
Leader sits at 56% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
France
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Norway
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 26, 2026
48 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Norway vs. France
Analysis
France is priced at 42% to win in a three-way matchup against Norway and a third opponent, based on aggregated contract data from prediction markets. This reflects France's historical strength in international competition and squad depth, though the relatively modest probability indicates material uncertainty about the outcome. The pricing depends heavily on team form leading up to the fixture, recent injury status of key players, and head-to-head tactical matchups. Market participants appear divided, with France favored but not overwhelmingly so, suggesting the match is genuinely competitive. Any late-stage injuries to star players or shifts in recent performance data could shift probabilities materially in either direction.
- ›France's contract price (39¢) on dedicated Norway vs. France contracts is lower than the aggregated headline (42%), indicating some divergence in market pricing across venues
- ›Volume concentration in France contracts ($208 24h on Kalshi) versus competing matchups suggests France-focused trading activity driving the benchmark probability
- ›The three-way market structure means France's 42% reflects competition from both Norway and a third outcome, not a direct bilateral contest
- ›Recent international match results and current injury reports for both squads would be the primary drivers of repricing before match day
- ›Senegal's varying odds across contracts (29¢ vs 48¢ against Norway) reflects uncertainty about the full tournament structure or bracket implications
What moved the line
- May 6Draw (Norway vs. France)↑4pp30→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 6France↑3pp42→45¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.