Norway vs. Senegal
Leader sits at 48% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Norway
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
Draw (Norway vs. Senegal)
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
45 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Norway vs. Senegal
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Norway will defeat Senegal in an upcoming match, with Norway priced as the favorite at 48% compared to Senegal at 29%. The valuation likely reflects differences in team strength, recent performance, or head-to-head history, though the relatively modest gap suggests meaningful uncertainty about the outcome. Key factors shifting this probability would include team roster changes, recent form data, or specific match conditions. The primary resolution driver is the scheduled match itself—once played, the contract settles based on the actual result, eliminating all uncertainty around this particular matchup.
- ›Norway is priced 19 percentage points above Senegal despite being a binary outcome, indicating the market assigns materially higher win probability to Norway rather than treating this as roughly even
- ›Volume on the Norway vs. Senegal contracts is minimal ($5 per side in 24h), meaning the price may be less efficiently discovered than higher-volume markets and could shift significantly with modest new trading activity
- ›France is priced at 69% across a separate contract involving Senegal, suggesting external tournament structure or group dynamics may influence expectations about individual matchups
- ›The three-way contract structure creates dependencies—the runner-up at 30% and third option at remainder must sum with the 48% leader, constraining how extreme any single outcome can be priced
- ›No specific match date or tournament window is specified in available data, meaning resolution timing and whether conditions (injury updates, weather forecasts) will emerge before kickoff remains unknown
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.