NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 74% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Laura Gillen
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
Nicholas Sciretta
Spread
59pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$85
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
45 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
This market reflects traders' assessment that a specific candidate has a 76% chance of winning the NY-04 Democratic primary. The leading candidate currently holds this probability advantage, with the second-place candidate at 11%, indicating meaningful separation but not certainty. Primary elections depend on voter turnout, candidate positioning, and shifts in district demographics or recent endorsements. The probability could move substantially based on polling shifts, debate performance, or unexpected candidate withdrawals. The primary election date itself serves as the ultimate resolution point, and interim developments like campaign finance disclosures, endorsements from established party figures, or organized labor support could shift trader expectations measurably in the weeks leading up to voting.
- ›Current price reflects a significant but not overwhelming lead; the frontrunner would need to maintain current support levels or improve to reach 80%+ territory
- ›Runoff scenarios or ranked-choice voting rules, if applicable in NY-04, create additional complexity that could shift outcomes compared to simple plurality assumptions
- ›Candidate spending, advertising, and field operations in the final weeks typically drive observable momentum shifts that traders respond to
- ›Endorsements or organizational support from established Democratic figures can move probabilities by 10-20 percentage points if perceived as consequential
- ›Historical turnout patterns in NY-04 primary elections determine which demographic groups show up, directly affecting which candidate benefits most
What moved the line
- May 3Taylor Darling↑6pp8→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Taylor Darling↓4pp14→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Taylor Darling↑4pp10→14¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.