NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 83% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Brad Lander
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Dan Goldman
Spread
64pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
45 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
NY-10 is assigned an 83% probability that a particular Democratic candidate will win the primary election for New York's 10th Congressional District. This probability is aggregated from a limited volume of trading activity on Polymarket, where contracts have traded at an average of 51 cents. The relatively high probability suggests markets view one candidate as a strong frontrunner, likely based on incumbency status, fundraising advantage, or polling data. The primary outcome will depend on voter turnout, endorsement patterns, and campaign spending in the coming weeks. The resolution date tied to New York's primary election calendar would be the key event determining the winner.
- ›Market volume for NY-10 Democratic Primary contracts remains low at approximately $816 over 24 hours, limiting the confidence that can be placed in price accuracy
- ›The 83% probability exceeds the 51% average price from the underlying Polymarket contracts, indicating the aggregation method may be weighting external data sources or applying adjustments beyond market pricing
- ›New York primary election dates and candidate filing deadlines are fixed calendar events that could clarify field composition and candidate viability
- ›Comparable Democratic primary markets in the aggregated data show wide probability ranges (16%-80%), suggesting primary outcomes have substantial uncertainty across similar races
- ›Incumbent status, cash-on-hand, and prior electoral performance in the district would be factual metrics available for comparative analysis of candidate strength
What moved the line
- May 3Dan Goldman↑4pp16→20¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (83% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Senate a Toss-Up
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.