NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 70% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Adriano Espaillat
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
Darializa Avila Chevalier
Spread
41pp
contested
24h volume
$10
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
45 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
The 70% probability indicates that one candidate is currently favored to win the NY-13 Democratic primary, with a meaningful 30% chance for the runner-up. Democratic primary contests are shaped by candidate name recognition, endorsement patterns, grassroots organizing capacity, and primary turnout composition. The current split reflects market participants' assessment that the frontrunner holds an edge but faces real competition. The primary election date and any major developments—such as high-profile endorsements, debate performance shifts, or fundraising reports—will be key signals that could move this probability. The market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty, suggesting the race is viewed as competitive rather than settled.
- ›The 70-30 split indicates concentrated but not overwhelming confidence in the leading candidate, suggesting competitive dynamics rather than a dominant frontrunner
- ›Democratic primary outcomes often shift based on turnout composition and last-minute endorsements; changes in either could move the probability significantly
- ›No major comparable NY state Democratic primaries show as trading volume on Polymarket (NY-07 at 27¢ is lower conviction), suggesting limited data density for calibration
- ›The runner-up maintains 30% implied probability, meaning market participants assign roughly 1-in-3 odds to an alternative outcome
- ›Primary election timing and any debate or endorsement announcements before voting will likely trigger volatility and probability updates
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (70% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
California Billionaire Wealth Tax Ballot Measure Surges +23¢ — Now 93¢ to Appear
The Polymarket contract for whether a one-time billionaire tax appears on the California 2026 ballot jumped an extraordinary +23¢ to 93¢ today, while the separate 'passes' contract jumped +10¢ to 48¢. This suggests the measure has cleared a major legal or signature-gathering threshold.
2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Senate a Toss-Up
Prediction markets price Democrats as 85% favorites to flip the House while the Senate races at a coin-flip, with a full Democratic sweep now the single most likely outcome at 50%.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.