# of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?
Leader sits at 51% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 38%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
3
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
38¢
2
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$32
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 3, 2026
25 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
# of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections
# of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?: 3
0x2a2bf6…373e
# of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?: 4
0xe4d2d0…fcb2
# of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?: 2
0x8dc8eb…3afa
# of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?: 1
0xb79020…ea6a
Analysis
This contract tracks whether South Korea's ruling Democratic Party (PPP) will win exactly 3 seats in upcoming by-elections. At 41%, the market suggests this outcome is neither favored nor unlikely, with traders roughly split between this scenario and alternatives like winning 0, 1, 5, or more seats. The PPP's seat count depends on voter turnout patterns, regional sentiment toward the current administration, and how effectively opposition parties mobilize support. The Democratic Party of Korea (DP) is heavily favored at 97 cents to win the most seats overall, suggesting a challenging environment for the ruling party. Resolution will occur once by-election results are officially certified, making the actual vote share and district-level performance the decisive factors in determining PPP's final seat count.
- ›Democratic Party of Korea (DP) heavily favored to win most seats overall (97¢), indicating headwinds for PPP performance
- ›PPP's exact seat count depends on vote distribution across multiple districts rather than overall vote share, creating outcome uncertainty
- ›Runner-up outcome priced identically at 41%, indicating market participants lack conviction about the 3-seat scenario versus competing alternatives
- ›Current market structure shows fragmented probabilities across multiple seat-count outcomes (0, 1, 3, 5), reflecting genuine uncertainty about PPP performance
- ›By-election timing and voter turnout in specific regions will mechanically determine which parties gain which seats
What moved the line
- May 83↑7pp40→47¢ · Polymarket
- May 82↓5pp43→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 81↓3pp11→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 62↑3pp40→43¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.