Orlando Pride vs. Washington Spirit - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 2 contracts. Kalshi at 28%, Polymarket at 30%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
28%
1 contract
Polymarket
30%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
2pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$257
2 contracts
Closes
May 19, 2027
375 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 28¢ · Polymarket 30¢ · 2pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (28¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (30¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Tricia Pridemore be the Republican nominee for GA-11” vs “GA-11 Republican Primary Winner: Tricia Pridemore”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Tricia Pridemore be the Republican nominee for GA-11
Will Tricia Pridemore be the Republican nominee for GA-11?: Tricia Pridemore
KXGAPRIMARY-11R26-TPRI
Cluster 2
GA-11 Republican Primary Winner: Tricia Pridemore
GA-11 Republican Primary Winner: Tricia Pridemore
0x939d61…de1b
What moved the line
- May 3Tricia Pridemore↑14pp31→45¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Tricia Pridemore↓8pp45→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Tricia Pridemore↓8pp37→29¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (29% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.