2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations
Leader sits at 61% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 51%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
The Black Ball
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
51¢
The Odyssey
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
574 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: Being Heumann
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-BEI
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: Wild Horse Nine
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-WIL
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: UNABOMBER
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-UNA
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: Saturn Return
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-SAT
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: The Odyssey
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-ODY
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: Michael
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-MIC
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: Fjord
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-FJO
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: Dune: Part Three
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-DUN
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: Digger
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-DIG
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: Cry to Heaven
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-CRY
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: Clarissa
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-CLA
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: The Black Ball
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-BLA
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations for casting recognition at the 2027 Academy Awards, with the leading contract suggesting a 52% chance that specific casting announcements will meet certain criteria. The market is concentrated on individual actor nominations—particularly Ryan Gosling at 51¢—rather than ensemble outcomes. Movement in this probability would depend on confirmed film projects entering production, release schedules being announced, and industry award recognition patterns. The main catalyst is the announcement of major 2027 film releases with star-studded casts in late 2026 and early 2027. Oscar eligibility voting occurs in early 2027, with nominations announced in January 2027, providing a fixed resolution date. Current trading volume remains modest across most outcomes, suggesting limited consensus on secondary casting possibilities.
- ›Ryan Gosling contract trades at 51¢ while other major actors (Jaafar Jackson at 15¢, others at 3¢), indicating concentrated market focus on specific casting outcomes
- ›Limited 24-hour trading volume ($180-$700 across contracts) suggests modest conviction or liquidity, with no outcome showing dominant market consensus
- ›Oscar eligibility and voting deadlines occur in January 2027, providing a hard constraint on when films must complete production and be submitted
- ›The contract structure covers multiple distinct outcomes with winner-take-all terms, meaning market probability allocates ~37% to all non-leader scenarios combined
- ›Film production announcements and release schedule confirmations between May 2026 and December 2026 will determine which projects qualify for the 2027 awards cycle
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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