2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations
Leader sits at 68% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 63%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
The Black Ball
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
63¢
Wild Horse Nine
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
465 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: Being Heumann
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-BEI
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: Obsession
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-OBS
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: The Black Ball
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-BLA
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: Michael
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-MIC
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: Wild Horse Nine
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-WIL
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: The Odyssey
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-ODY
2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations?: Dune: Part Three
KXOSCARNOMBCASTING-27-DUN
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that at least one of five films with casting achievements will receive an Oscar nomination in the 2027 ceremony (honoring 2026 films). The current 87% leader suggests strong confidence in this outcome. The market is pricing in that contemporary casting innovations or notable ensemble work will be recognized by Academy voters. The main drivers of this probability are the relative prestige and festival performance of the five candidates, along with historical patterns of casting-focused recognition in the acting and technical categories. The resolution will occur when the Academy announces Oscar nominees in early 2027, which will determine whether any of these films achieved sufficient recognition in their casting execution to warrant nomination consideration.
- ›The leading contract 'Being Heumann' trades at 18¢ while runner-up 'The Black Ball' is at 69¢, indicating market uncertainty about which specific film will achieve nomination status
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all five contracts suggests limited recent trading activity and potentially stale price signals
- ›The probability hinges on Academy voters' willingness to nominate casting achievement as a standalone criterion versus embedding it within broader film assessments
- ›Historical frequency of casting-related nominations in Oscar history would set a baseline for whether 87% confidence is calibrated appropriately
- ›Festival recognition and industry buzz for these five films between now and nomination voting (early 2027) will likely shift probabilities as films compete in the awards season
What moved the line
- Sep 17The Odyssey↓25pp87→62¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Obsession↓12pp16→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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