Will Betty Gilpin be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Supporting Actress at the 78th Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
41%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−10pp
19h ago
24h volume
$4K
20 contracts
Closes
Jul 8, 2027
396 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jack Lowden be on the list of nominees for Drama Supporting Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 2
Will Kerry Washington be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Actress at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 3
Will Jake Lacy be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 4
Will Jason Bateman be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 5
Will Emilia Jones be on the list of nominees for Drama Supporting Actress at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 6
Will David Harbour be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 7
Will Charlie Hunnam be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 8
Will DTF St. Louis be on the list of nominees for Limited Series at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 9
Will Richard Gadd be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 10
Will Isa Briones be on the list of nominees for Drama Supporting Actress at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 11
Will Marisa Abela be on the list of nominees for Drama Actress at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 12
Will Colman Domingo be on the list of nominees for Drama Supporting Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 13
Will Jeremy Allen White be on the list of nominees for Comedy Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 14
Will Andrew Scott be on the list of nominees for Comedy Supporting Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 15
Will Lord of the Flies be on the list of nominees for Limited Series at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 16
Will Nobody Wants This be on the list of nominees for Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 17
Will Love Story be on the list of nominees for Limited Series at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 18
Will Adam Brody be on the list of nominees for Comedy Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 19
Will Ethan Hawke be on the list of nominees for Comedy Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards
Cluster 20
Will Jason Segel be on the list of nominees for Comedy Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards
Analysis
This represents a roughly even-odds assessment of whether actress Betty Gilpin will receive a nomination for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Movie or Limited Series at the 78th Emmy Awards. The 51% probability reflects uncertainty about her competitiveness within a large field of eligible performers for these categories. Key drivers of this level include the quality and visibility of her 2024-2025 project submissions, the overall competitive landscape of supporting actress nominees in her category tier, and historical patterns of nomination recognition for her prior work. The probability will resolve when the Emmy Awards nominating committee announces its official ballot, which typically occurs in mid-July for the ceremony held in September. Until then, industry reception to her recent projects and relative strength compared to other contenders will shape market expectations.
- ›Betty Gilpin's nomination history and prior Emmy recognition levels in similar categories
- ›The specific projects she appeared in during the 2024-2025 eligibility window and their industry visibility
- ›The size and competitive depth of the Movie/Limited Supporting Actress field for this Emmy cycle
- ›Volume and recency of industry awards recognition she received heading into nomination voting
- ›Typical submission strategy and campaign intensity from her team or studio compared to peer actresses
What moved the line
- Jun 7Charlie Hunnam↓61pp62→1¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7Colman Domingo↓45pp46→1¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7Jeremy Allen White↑34pp42→76¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7Jack Lowden↓26pp52→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7Jason Bateman↓26pp65→39¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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