Will Justin Rose be ranked top 10 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$85
20 contracts
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will Justin” vs “Will Scottie Scheffler be ranked top”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Justin
Will Justin Rose be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026?: Justin Rose
KXOWGRRANK-26JUNT20-JROS
Will Justin Thomas be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026?: Justin Thomas
KXOWGRRANK-26JUNT20-JTHO
Cluster 2
Will Scottie Scheffler be ranked top
Will Scottie Scheffler be ranked top 10 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026?: Scottie Scheffler
KXOWGRRANK-26JUNT10-SSCH
Will Scottie Scheffler be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026?: Scottie Scheffler
KXOWGRRANK-26JUNT20-SSCH
Cluster 3
Will Rory McIlroy be ranked top
Will Rory McIlroy be ranked top 10 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026?: Rory McIlroy
KXOWGRRANK-26JUNT10-RMCI
Will Rory McIlroy be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026?: Rory McIlroy
KXOWGRRANK-26JUNT20-RMCI
Cluster 4
Will Matt Fitzpatrick be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026
Cluster 5
Will J.J. Spaun be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026
Cluster 6
Will Chris Gotterup be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026
Cluster 7
Will Collin Morikawa be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026
Cluster 8
Will Tommy Fleetwood be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026
Cluster 9
Will Xander Schauffele be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026
Cluster 10
Will Robert MacIntyre be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026
Cluster 11
Will Sepp Straka be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026
Cluster 12
Will Ludvig Aberg be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026
Cluster 13
Will Ben Griffin be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026
Cluster 14
Will Cameron Young be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026
Cluster 15
Will Russell Henley be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026
Cluster 16
Will Hideki Matsuyama be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026
Cluster 17
Will Jacob Bridgeman be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026
Analysis
This probability asks whether Justin Rose will achieve a top-10 ranking on the Official World Golf Ranking by June 1, 2026. At 20%, the market suggests this outcome is unlikely but plausible. Rose's ranking trajectory depends on his performance in the remaining major tournaments and regular tour events before the deadline. The low probability reflects his recent results—related markets show minimal confidence in his near-term competitive success, with markets on his specific tournament finishes trading substantially lower. The Cadillac Championship and other spring events represent concrete near-term tests of his form. Rose would need consistent top-tier performances over the next month to move significantly into contention for a top-10 ranking, which historically requires sustained excellence across multiple events.
- ›Justin Rose's current Official World Golf Ranking position as of late April 2026 and points gap to the top 10
- ›His performance in the Cadillac Championship and other scheduled PGA Tour events before June 1
- ›Whether he secures top-10 finishes in upcoming tournaments, as related markets price his head-to-head and tournament outcome odds substantially lower
- ›The typical point degradation rate for players outside the top 10 and how many events Rose would need to win or place in
- ›Recent form trends—whether Rose is demonstrating improving consistency or continued inconsistency compared to the prior 12 months
What moved the line
- May 6Scottie Scheffler↑90pp4→94¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Rory McIlroy↑90pp4→94¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Justin Rose↑86pp3→89¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Collin Morikawa↑86pp3→89¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Rory McIlroy↑86pp3→89¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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