SimpleFunctions
20 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses Jun 1, 2026 · 23d

Will Justin Rose be ranked top 10 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 20 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

48%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

48%

20 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$85

20 contracts

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

23 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 18% (7 days, 7 points)Aggregate: 18% on 2026-05-08
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 7d

Bracket families

17 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will Justin” vs “Will Scottie Scheffler be ranked top”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will Justin

2 contracts$10

Cluster 2

Will Scottie Scheffler be ranked top

2 contracts$5

Cluster 3

Will Rory McIlroy be ranked top

2 contracts$5

Cluster 4

Will Matt Fitzpatrick be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026

1 contract$10

Cluster 5

Will J.J. Spaun be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026

1 contract$10

Cluster 6

Will Chris Gotterup be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026

1 contract$10

Cluster 7

Will Collin Morikawa be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026

1 contract$5

Cluster 8

Will Tommy Fleetwood be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026

1 contract$5

Cluster 9

Will Xander Schauffele be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026

1 contract$5

Cluster 10

Will Robert MacIntyre be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026

1 contract$5

Cluster 11

Will Sepp Straka be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026

1 contract$5

Cluster 12

Will Ludvig Aberg be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026

1 contract$5

Cluster 13

Will Ben Griffin be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026

1 contract$5

Cluster 14

Will Cameron Young be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 15

Will Russell Henley be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 16

Will Hideki Matsuyama be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 17

Will Jacob Bridgeman be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026

1 contract$0

Analysis

This probability asks whether Justin Rose will achieve a top-10 ranking on the Official World Golf Ranking by June 1, 2026. At 20%, the market suggests this outcome is unlikely but plausible. Rose's ranking trajectory depends on his performance in the remaining major tournaments and regular tour events before the deadline. The low probability reflects his recent results—related markets show minimal confidence in his near-term competitive success, with markets on his specific tournament finishes trading substantially lower. The Cadillac Championship and other spring events represent concrete near-term tests of his form. Rose would need consistent top-tier performances over the next month to move significantly into contention for a top-10 ranking, which historically requires sustained excellence across multiple events.

  • Justin Rose's current Official World Golf Ranking position as of late April 2026 and points gap to the top 10
  • His performance in the Cadillac Championship and other scheduled PGA Tour events before June 1
  • Whether he secures top-10 finishes in upcoming tournaments, as related markets price his head-to-head and tournament outcome odds substantially lower
  • The typical point degradation rate for players outside the top 10 and how many events Rose would need to win or place in
  • Recent form trends—whether Rose is demonstrating improving consistency or continued inconsistency compared to the prior 12 months

What moved the line

  • May 6Scottie Scheffler90pp494¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Rory McIlroy90pp494¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Justin Rose86pp389¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Collin Morikawa86pp389¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Rory McIlroy86pp389¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.