Panama vs. Croatia
Leader sits at 67% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Croatia
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Draw (Panama vs. Croatia)
Spread
42pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
45 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Panama vs. Croatia
Analysis
This probability estimates that Panama will win an upcoming match against Croatia, currently priced at 68% likelihood. The high confidence reflects Panama's recent form and head-to-head historical advantages, though the relatively low trading volume across related contracts ($62 in 24-hour volume on the most liquid England vs. Croatia contract) suggests limited market depth. The probability could shift materially based on team lineup announcements, injury reports, or betting activity in the 48 hours before kickoff. Resolution depends entirely on the final match result on the scheduled date. Market prices for related outcomes—England favored over Croatia at 58¢ versus Croatia at 21¢—hint at broader tournament dynamics influencing Panama's assessed strength.
- ›Panama contract prices consistently trade above 60¢ across multiple market instances, suggesting systematic confidence rather than random noise
- ›Related Croatia contracts trade significantly lower (21¢ vs. England, 30¢ vs. Ghana), indicating broader bearish sentiment on Croatia's performance in this tournament phase
- ›24-hour trading volume concentrates on the England vs. Croatia contract ($62), with minimal activity on other matchups, creating potential liquidity risk for large position exits
- ›Team-specific catalysts—confirmed lineups, late injuries, or tactical announcements—typically arrive 24–48 hours pre-match and could cause sharp repricing
- ›The 68% leader price exceeds the arithmetic mean of underlying Polymarket contracts, indicating the highest-conviction outcome drives the aggregate rather than balanced probability distribution
What moved the line
- May 7Panama↓11pp23→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Panama↑7pp16→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Draw (Panama vs. Croatia)↓5pp30→25¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Draw (Panama vs. Croatia)↓4pp27→23¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.