Paraguay vs. Australia
Leader sits at 41% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Paraguay
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Australia
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 26, 2026
48 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Paraguay vs. Australia
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Paraguay will finish with the best record in their group stage, currently priced at 40% likelihood. The pricing suggests Paraguay holds a slight edge over Australia (at 34%), with both teams viewed as competitive but uncertain. Key drivers include recent team form, head-to-head matchup dynamics, and strength of schedule against other group opponents. Markets are actively pricing these outcomes based on available fixture information and recent performance data. The actual resolution will depend on match results across the group stage, where goal differential and direct competition outcomes will ultimately determine final standings.
- ›Paraguay currently trades 6 percentage points higher than Australia in the aggregated market price, indicating analysts view them as slight favorites
- ›United States vs. Paraguay contracts show 49¢ pricing, suggesting Paraguay faces a stronger-ranked competitor in their matchup
- ›Low trading volume on some contracts ($0-28 24h vol) indicates thin liquidity in secondary markets, which can amplify price movements on new information
- ›Australia vs. Türkiye pricing (54¢ for Türkiye) suggests Australia may face a difficult matchup, potentially affecting their group stage position
- ›All three contracts represent multi-outcome scenarios where group stage performance and points accumulation will determine the actual winner
What moved the line
- May 7Paraguay↓6pp43→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Draw (Paraguay vs. Australia)↓3pp35→32¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.