PEC Zwolle vs. Heracles Almelo - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 8 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
46%
8 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
8 contracts
Closes
May 5, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U” vs “Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 3
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets
Cluster 4
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Cluster 5
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x265119…772e
What moved the line
- May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)↓17pp35→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 2.5↓12pp53→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 2.5↑3pp63→66¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 2.5↓3pp56→53¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.