Will Olivia Holt perform as Britney Spears in Britney Spears Biopic directed by Jon M. Chu
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
1698 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Margot Robbie perform as Britney Spears in Britney Spears Biopic directed by Jon M. Chu
Cluster 2
Will Addison Rae perform as Britney Spears in Britney Spears Biopic directed by Jon M. Chu
Cluster 3
Will Olivia Holt perform as Britney Spears in Britney Spears Biopic directed by Jon M. Chu
Cluster 4
Will Emma Roberts perform as Britney Spears in Britney Spears Biopic directed by Jon M. Chu
Cluster 5
Will Florence Pugh perform as Britney Spears in Britney Spears Biopic directed by Jon M. Chu
Cluster 6
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform as Britney Spears in Britney Spears Biopic directed by Jon M. Chu
Analysis
This probability estimates whether actress Olivia Holt will be cast to play Britney Spears in a biographical film directed by Jon M. Chu. At 8%, the market currently assesses this outcome as unlikely. The low probability likely reflects uncertainty about whether the project will move forward with formal casting announcements and the breadth of potential candidates for the lead role. Several actresses have been publicly discussed for the part, and without confirmed reporting about Holt being in contention, the baseline remains modest. The primary catalyst would be an official casting announcement from the filmmakers or production company, which would definitively resolve whether Holt secured the role. Any public reporting about the film's development status, competing casting choices, or Holt's involvement in the project could shift market expectations. Industry trades like Variety or The Hollywood Reporter would likely break news of this casting decision first.
- ›Official casting announcement from the film's producers or studio would directly resolve the question
- ›Public reporting in major entertainment media outlets regarding who is in contention for the Britney Spears lead role
- ›Any statements from Jon M. Chu, the director, about casting progress or timeline for the film
- ›Whether the project receives formal greenlight status with scheduled production dates, which correlates with likelihood of finalized casting
- ›Olivia Holt's current project commitments and public statements about her involvement in Britney-related projects
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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