Will George W. Bush be seen in public before Jun 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 56% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
56%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$17
2 contracts
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will George W. Bush be seen in public before Jun 1, 2026
Will George W. Bush be seen in public before Jun 1, 2026?: George W. Bush
KXPERSONPUBLIC-26JUN01-GBUS
Cluster 2
Will Joe Biden be seen in public before Jun 1, 2026
Will Joe Biden be seen in public before Jun 1, 2026?: Joe Biden
KXPERSONPUBLIC-26JUN01-JBID
Analysis
This market estimates a 76% chance that former President George W. Bush will make a public appearance within the next four weeks. The relatively high probability reflects Bush's consistent pattern of public activity in recent years, including speaking engagements, charity events, and social appearances. The main factors affecting this probability are Bush's current health status and his scheduled commitments during late May. The resolution depends entirely on whether any public sighting—whether planned or candid—occurs before June 1, 2026. Events like the opening of his presidential library events, family occasions, or routine public activities could occur. The market assigns meaningful probability to non-appearance, suggesting traders account for health uncertainties or unexpected circumstances that could keep him out of public view during this specific window.
- ›Bush's public activity frequency in 2025-2026 compared to historical baseline for the same season
- ›Reported health status or scheduled medical procedures that might affect mobility during late May
- ›Announced public commitments or events during the May 4-June 1 window (conferences, dedications, charity events)
- ›Media monitoring data showing whether Bush has been visible in any public setting in the preceding 30 days
- ›Definition of 'seen in public' in the contract terms—whether photographs, video, or credible witness accounts qualify
What moved the line
- May 6George W. Bush↓8pp59→51¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Joe Biden↓8pp71→63¢ · Kalshi
- May 2George W. Bush↑3pp57→60¢ · Kalshi
- May 7George W. Bush↓3pp51→48¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Joe Biden↑3pp67→70¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (56% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.