Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
37%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
0x0fcfcf…d3dc
Analysis
This market reflects a 39% probability that Pete Hegseth, the current U.S. Secretary of Defense, will leave office before the end of 2026. The probability is shaped by two main considerations: Hegseth's tenure stability within the Trump administration and the political dynamics that could force a cabinet resignation. The most significant catalyst remains Congressional oversight and potential confirmation-related controversies, as cabinet members can face sudden departures due to scandal, health issues, policy disagreements, or political pressure. Historically, cabinet members serve full terms more often than not, but the current probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about Hegseth's specific position through year-end.
- ›Hegseth has faced previous controversies including allegations and military misconduct questions during his 2025 confirmation process, which could resurface
- ›Cabinet departures typically occur due to scandal, policy conflicts with the President, or health issues—none of which have been widely reported as imminent
- ›The Secretary of Defense role involves high-stakes decisions on Ukraine, China, and military spending that could create pressure points for departure
- ›Trump administration cabinet turnover has historically been higher than typical administrations, affecting baseline expectations for all secretaries
- ›Congressional investigations or military personnel controversies could emerge that specifically target Hegseth's leadership through 2026
What moved the line
- May 6Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?↓4pp41→37¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (37% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.